Imagine waking up one morning with the breaking news of a plane crash in which there were no survivors.
Not just a small plane with a few dozen people, but a Boeing 747 or Airbus 380 with 400 passengers.
Gone from the face of the earth.
You would obviously be shocked at the magnitude of this tragedy, and there would be a massive investigation to understand what happened, and how it could be prevented from happening again.
Now imagine waking up the next day, and seeing the same headline. Another plane, another 400 gone.
And again the next day. And the next. And the next.
Till you come to midnight on December 31, and you realize that the entire year has gone by, and every single day, 400 people have died in plane crash.
Before you dismiss this as the most unbelievable story of all time, let me assure you that it is completely true. This has been happening for the past several years, and we are completely blind to it.
The roughly 240,000 people who died on Indian roads (2013 WHO figures - likely to be higher in 2015) are equivalent to not just one plane crash every day, but two, for an entire year!
And yet we as a nation are totally oblivious to this, and continue to drive rashly, pay scant attention to
safety norms and disregard all laws that are put in place to preserve human life.
There is a reason for this, and it comes down entirely to the human tendency to ignore risks that are large in number but with a minimal impact in each instance. In simple terms, that means we focus more on a single plane crash with 400 deaths than we would on 400 car crashes with a single occupant fatality. The few instances where the person involved in this incident happens to be a celebrity of sorts gets a huge amount of attention, but that quickly dies down once the media moves to another "masala" topic.
Some would argue that we are a fatalistic lot - after all, the Almighty has decided when he wants to have us join him, so what are mere traffic lights, zebra crossings and speed limits going to prevent? If your time has come, then there's nothing you can do about it. Hindus will point to reincarnation and the fact that they are fated to return anyway - Muslims will simply say "Insha'Allah".
I happen to belong to the camp that argues that this is simple a question of discipline, or lack thereof - something that we seem to adhere to in most other walks of life, but somehow forget once we are behind the wheel, or crossing a road. From birth, we are taught to be obedient - to parents and elders at home, then teachers at school. That obedience goes out the window, however, when we come face to face with a person in khaki. In the school morning assembly, we stand in a nice orderly queue, and walk single file back to class under the watchful gaze of the principal. Put us behind the wheel of a car, and that nice orderly queue degenerates to what can only be described as Brownian motion of dust particles.
Prof Raghunathan of IIM-A has explained this dilemma elegantly in his book "Games Indians Play" - through the lens of game theory. When faced with a choice, if you choose to maximize your benefit, it results in a negative outcome for the other person. If you decide to be altruistic and maximize the overall benefit of both parties, however, you get a smaller individual reward. Let's see how this works in practice.
Imagine you're driving your car on the road, following a long line of other cars (contrary to virtually all car ads, no one has the luxury of driving down an empty highway with beautiful scenery in the background!) If you were in most other parts of the world, you would follow the car in front of you, occupying the space that it has vacated. If that car slows down, you slow down. If it stops, you stop. The person behind you does the same thing, as does the one to your left and right. You occasionally change lanes if you want to go a little faster, but recognize that your choosing to drive at 100 while everyone else is at 50 will make you the odd one out and incur a penalty.
In India, this orderly scenario is turned upside down, with every driver seeking to find the shortest way to fill a gap that is often several meters in front of them. Never mind that there are five other cars between you and that space - your mission is to get to that space as quickly as possible.
And therein lies the crux of the problem - everyone rushing to get ahead when an objective analysis of the situation would tell you that the appropriate solution is to follow the leader. And while penalties for speeding do exist, the Indian motorist is particularly skilled in the art of wriggling out of such situations either through pleas or threats depending on their socio-economic status.
The problem is compounded by the fact that, as compared with most other countries, the diversity of objects on India's roads is unparalleled. We have everything ranging from a conventional car to two-wheelers (motorized and human powered), three-wheelers, animals (under human control and free roaming), pushcarts, buses, trucks and, of course, pedestrians. The range of speeds is all the way from 1 to 100 kmph (or higher at early hours of the morning). And we somehow expect all of these to exist harmoniously without any incidents.
The first step clearly would be to reduce the variety of transport options. It is unfortunate that the Tata Nano failed to takeoff, as it would have moved a large number of families moving around on two-wheelers to cars which are considerably more stable and less able to squeeze themselves into small spaces. While auto-rickshaws are convenient, replacing them with high capacity buses is more conducive to orderly road traffic.
Once you are down to just cars and buses, the next step will be to segregate space for pedestrians. Every year, places like Zurich, Tokyo, Melbourne and Vancouver make it to the top of the list of most livable cities in no small part because of their emphasis on providing options for walking. Most Indian cities, on the other hand, pay lip service to the pedestrian, with excavated pavements, vendor carts and large trees blocking the path of those brave souls who often have no choice but to walk. As a result, they end up walking in the road along with vehicles. Attributing this to a large population is no excuse - most cities in Europe and other Asian countries are as crowded as Delhi or Mumbai but are able to manage this based on good planning. Making cities more walkable will not just reduce traffic incidents, but is also recognized as a solution to climate change as well as the growing problem of obesity around the world. Having a fitter and healthier population is infinitely better than having to spend money on accident victims.
Finally, the discipline of maintaining order on the roads and awareness of safety has to start as early as possible in school. Children have been used to great effect in advertising to bring about behavioral change in their parents - from not bursting crackers at Diwali to giving up smoking. A comprehensive awareness program in schools, with the transference of those learnings to their parents, will go a long way in ensuring that the next generation of drivers will regard any accident, no matter how small, as an aberration that cannot be accepted. The autonomous car revolution may one day render all of this moot, but till that time, we have to take responsibility to keep people safe.
Not just a small plane with a few dozen people, but a Boeing 747 or Airbus 380 with 400 passengers.
Gone from the face of the earth.
You would obviously be shocked at the magnitude of this tragedy, and there would be a massive investigation to understand what happened, and how it could be prevented from happening again.
Now imagine waking up the next day, and seeing the same headline. Another plane, another 400 gone.
And again the next day. And the next. And the next.
Till you come to midnight on December 31, and you realize that the entire year has gone by, and every single day, 400 people have died in plane crash.
Before you dismiss this as the most unbelievable story of all time, let me assure you that it is completely true. This has been happening for the past several years, and we are completely blind to it.
The roughly 240,000 people who died on Indian roads (2013 WHO figures - likely to be higher in 2015) are equivalent to not just one plane crash every day, but two, for an entire year!
And yet we as a nation are totally oblivious to this, and continue to drive rashly, pay scant attention to
safety norms and disregard all laws that are put in place to preserve human life.
There is a reason for this, and it comes down entirely to the human tendency to ignore risks that are large in number but with a minimal impact in each instance. In simple terms, that means we focus more on a single plane crash with 400 deaths than we would on 400 car crashes with a single occupant fatality. The few instances where the person involved in this incident happens to be a celebrity of sorts gets a huge amount of attention, but that quickly dies down once the media moves to another "masala" topic.
Some would argue that we are a fatalistic lot - after all, the Almighty has decided when he wants to have us join him, so what are mere traffic lights, zebra crossings and speed limits going to prevent? If your time has come, then there's nothing you can do about it. Hindus will point to reincarnation and the fact that they are fated to return anyway - Muslims will simply say "Insha'Allah".
I happen to belong to the camp that argues that this is simple a question of discipline, or lack thereof - something that we seem to adhere to in most other walks of life, but somehow forget once we are behind the wheel, or crossing a road. From birth, we are taught to be obedient - to parents and elders at home, then teachers at school. That obedience goes out the window, however, when we come face to face with a person in khaki. In the school morning assembly, we stand in a nice orderly queue, and walk single file back to class under the watchful gaze of the principal. Put us behind the wheel of a car, and that nice orderly queue degenerates to what can only be described as Brownian motion of dust particles.
Prof Raghunathan of IIM-A has explained this dilemma elegantly in his book "Games Indians Play" - through the lens of game theory. When faced with a choice, if you choose to maximize your benefit, it results in a negative outcome for the other person. If you decide to be altruistic and maximize the overall benefit of both parties, however, you get a smaller individual reward. Let's see how this works in practice.
Imagine you're driving your car on the road, following a long line of other cars (contrary to virtually all car ads, no one has the luxury of driving down an empty highway with beautiful scenery in the background!) If you were in most other parts of the world, you would follow the car in front of you, occupying the space that it has vacated. If that car slows down, you slow down. If it stops, you stop. The person behind you does the same thing, as does the one to your left and right. You occasionally change lanes if you want to go a little faster, but recognize that your choosing to drive at 100 while everyone else is at 50 will make you the odd one out and incur a penalty.
In India, this orderly scenario is turned upside down, with every driver seeking to find the shortest way to fill a gap that is often several meters in front of them. Never mind that there are five other cars between you and that space - your mission is to get to that space as quickly as possible.
And therein lies the crux of the problem - everyone rushing to get ahead when an objective analysis of the situation would tell you that the appropriate solution is to follow the leader. And while penalties for speeding do exist, the Indian motorist is particularly skilled in the art of wriggling out of such situations either through pleas or threats depending on their socio-economic status.
The problem is compounded by the fact that, as compared with most other countries, the diversity of objects on India's roads is unparalleled. We have everything ranging from a conventional car to two-wheelers (motorized and human powered), three-wheelers, animals (under human control and free roaming), pushcarts, buses, trucks and, of course, pedestrians. The range of speeds is all the way from 1 to 100 kmph (or higher at early hours of the morning). And we somehow expect all of these to exist harmoniously without any incidents.
The first step clearly would be to reduce the variety of transport options. It is unfortunate that the Tata Nano failed to takeoff, as it would have moved a large number of families moving around on two-wheelers to cars which are considerably more stable and less able to squeeze themselves into small spaces. While auto-rickshaws are convenient, replacing them with high capacity buses is more conducive to orderly road traffic.
Once you are down to just cars and buses, the next step will be to segregate space for pedestrians. Every year, places like Zurich, Tokyo, Melbourne and Vancouver make it to the top of the list of most livable cities in no small part because of their emphasis on providing options for walking. Most Indian cities, on the other hand, pay lip service to the pedestrian, with excavated pavements, vendor carts and large trees blocking the path of those brave souls who often have no choice but to walk. As a result, they end up walking in the road along with vehicles. Attributing this to a large population is no excuse - most cities in Europe and other Asian countries are as crowded as Delhi or Mumbai but are able to manage this based on good planning. Making cities more walkable will not just reduce traffic incidents, but is also recognized as a solution to climate change as well as the growing problem of obesity around the world. Having a fitter and healthier population is infinitely better than having to spend money on accident victims.
Finally, the discipline of maintaining order on the roads and awareness of safety has to start as early as possible in school. Children have been used to great effect in advertising to bring about behavioral change in their parents - from not bursting crackers at Diwali to giving up smoking. A comprehensive awareness program in schools, with the transference of those learnings to their parents, will go a long way in ensuring that the next generation of drivers will regard any accident, no matter how small, as an aberration that cannot be accepted. The autonomous car revolution may one day render all of this moot, but till that time, we have to take responsibility to keep people safe.
No comments:
Post a Comment