A choice to make

In the famous cult movie from the 1990s, “The Matrix”, the main character Neo (played by Keanu Reeves) is confronted with a life-changing choice early in the script – that between a red pill and a blue pill. Taking the blue pill puts him back into the virtual world in which he currently lives, where existence is nothing more than a sophisticated computer program. Taking the red pill, however, leads him down a path of no return – learning the truth behind the Matrix, and thereby also breaking free from it.

A similar choice faces the world today when it comes to energy, and it is one that should not be ignored. Whether it is understanding the details behind the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, or appreciating the challenges of meeting basic human needs for over half the world’s population, a greater awareness is required of how human desires have shaped the current energy paradigm that today dominates the developed world, and is poised to become the enabler for the developing world to stake its claim tomorrow to global stardom. It is unfortunate that discussions on this topic usually take center stage only during a crisis, and typically subside soon thereafter, despite reassurances that “this time it’s different”. The inconvenient truth (with apologies to Al Gore) is that most of us don’t care what it takes to keep the world running, just as long as it continues to run. Only when oily waves start breaking on the shore are we all forced to take off our rose-colored glasses and acknowledge reality.

From burning wood to stay warm thousands of years ago, to using the energy from splitting an atom to power an entire city today, mankind’s energy journey has been fraught with triumphs and setbacks. Every advance to a newer form of energy has come at a cost – often in the form of lives lost, and environmental disasters. It is folly to imagine that there is a single solution that could meet human wants on a global scale, while at the same time being guaranteed round the clock and at an affordable price. It is also short-sighted to overlook the fact that every solution has an adverse environmental impact – whether it is in mining the lithium to make hybrid car batteries, or the silicon required to make solar cells. Politicians and philosophers have often commented that the human imagination is limitless – sadly, that has translated into a limitless capacity for energy usage, which has compounded the problems being faced today.

For the US, the oil spill is an unpleasant continuation of the energy crisis from two years ago, when soaring oil prices rudely awakened consumers, and resulted in slumping SUV sales, talk of OPEC conspiracies and a subsequent recession that continues to this day. It was not the first time that the US had faced this nightmare – almost 30 yrs earlier, President Carter tried to educate the American people about the dangers of a lifestyle addicted to wasteful energy. But rather than follow the path laid out by him (which seems ahead of its time, even when viewed by today’s standards), the nation took the blue pill and went back to business as usual. The greening of the environment was not sufficient motivation for people to compromise the greening of their wallets.

Is the US even capable of making a change, one might ask? The seeds of its energy consumption were laid decades ago, with the suburban sprawl that commenced after the second world war, aided by the construction of massive highways and a love affair with the automobile. There is not a single activity that does not require man-made energy of some form or another – from drying clothes (clothes lines are so 19^th century!) and reading books (I just love my new Kindle!), to recreation (fire up the jet skis!) and, ironically, even getting back to nature (get in the RV and drive 500 miles into the wilderness). The power blackout in New York City back in August 2003 is symptomatic of what energy shortages would mean for the US.

But what about India, which has just begun the journey to energy greatness? Shortages are still common even in big cities, and have highlighted the need for better infrastructure and greater policing of power theft. The car market continues to grow at a breathtaking pace, and the golden quadrilateral is mostly in place, but thankfully most consumers have continued to focus on petrol costs in their car buying decisions. Having chosen to excel in services rather than manufacturing like China, the total energy required by factories and other industries has also been moderate. And while the aspirations of India’s upwardly mobile are no less than their western counterparts, the population density in most parts of the country, while a tremendous burden to the infrastructure, could actually be the saving grace. Most Indian towns are compact, not sprawled out like those in the US. Public transport was in place well before the Maruti appeared, and the recent example of the Delhi metro suggests that mass transit is not likely to lose favor for the average citizen. Having faced energy shortages for decades, Indians are more apt to go for highly energy efficient goods and practices.

So while the oil spill is not affecting Juhu Beach in Mumbai or the backwaters of God’s own country, for India this could be the last fork in the road, the final opportunity to take the red pill instead of the blue one. Please choose wisely.